Points Creep! This is the unfortunate term that people who are building points in various states come to hate. What happens in a lot of the western states that have a higher demand for tags than the state can issue is that the break point or max point levels jump one or more points every year. Year-over-year trends can help identify when this is going to happen. If you look at a hunt and it has jumped one or more point levels every year for the past few years, chances are it’s going to continue and unfortunately if you’re not in that max point pool you will never catch up and draw that hunt.
Another big thing to remember is that you are looking at the previous years odds, not the current years odds. So it might have been 100% for the previous year, but might not be the case for the current year. Example: 2021 was 100% at 15 points. For the 2022 applications, you can bet that 15 points will be less than 100% and 16 points would be at 100%.